The Friday Ramble: Bids, Transfers and Mexico
In this week's Friday Ramble, I look at the 2027 World Cup, January transfer window's influence on relegation and Mexico's development. Plus, I answer your questions...
Firstly, Happy New Year!
The Friday Ramble is going to take on a slightly new format this year, and essentially be what it was designed to be - a ramble! So, every two weeks, I’ll be picking a few topical subjects from the previous few weeks to give my thoughts on!
2027 World Cup
I was sad, yet understood, the reasons behind South Africa withdrawing its bid to host the 2027 World Cup. I think it would be huge for the continent given the momentum built up off the back of the most recent tournament, though hopefully if they are successful for 2031, there is even greater momentum off the back of 2027, when the African nations should be even stronger four years on.
It leaves Brazil and joint-bids USA and Mexico and from Netherlands, Belgium and Germany. All have their pros and cons. Brazil could probably do with a nudge in women’s football having fallen behind the rest of the world, while Germany have always been well established and the Dutch have won a major tournament in the past decade, while Belgium could certainly do with the attention that comes with a tournament.
Relevant Read: The Big Interview: Romaney Pinnock, Head of Women's Football at SAFA
But, Netherlands did host the European Championships just seven years ago. But then, Brazil is a vast expanse with cities sprauled out all over the place, and to be fair to the BNG bid, they’ve been incredibly smart in selecting practical cities close to each border, meaning it would be incredibly fan-friendly.
The USA and Mexico bid similarly from a logistics point of view throws up challenges and there’s been some murmurs they haven’t quite given it full attention given both countries are hosting the men’s World Cup a year earlier. On the one hand, it works, because the USA is a powerhouse of the women’s game and has a huge audience, and Mexico is again another nation who would benefit hugely from a major women’s tournament, but a year on from hosting the men’s equivalent, it would feel a little much to have both in 12 months.
We will find out soon!
Mewis move shows how tough WSL is becoming
I’ve written several times about how hard I feel the WSL is becoming for new teams. In the past five years since the 2018 restructure there has been enough teams struggling to keep up with the financial growth of the game that has given newly-promoted sides a chance to hold their heads above water.
The plight of the likes of Birmingham City, Reading and co has been to the gain of Aston Villa and Leicester City in particular. Villa were promoted in 2020 and now have players such as Rachel Daly, Jordan Nobbs and Kenza Dali. The Foxes are a year behind, but signed established internationals themselves in the summer.
For Bristol City, it’s left West Ham United as their nearest challenger as things stand to avoid an instant return to the Championship. To their credit - given I admit I gave Lauren Smith’s side little chance of survival - they are right in the mix, but the January window has been open less than a week and the Hammers have added USA international and NWSL champion Kristie Mewis, as well as Olympic gold medalist Shelina Zadorsky. Katrina Gorry, who shone at the World Cup, is rumoured to be following.
Relevant Read: Reforming Women’s Football in England
How does a newly-promoted side compete with that? If Bristol City do go back down, the next team is coming into an even tougher league. Liverpool would be the most recent promoted side to have stayed up, but next season will be their third season back in the top division and they’ve moved well away from the bottom, while Leicester would be in their fourth season and Villa their fifth.
All are now incredibly well established, with an array of star international players, so it would be a big good luck to whoever steps in next. While it’s one up, one down, it may as well be a closed league in all but name, and let’s hope opening up promotion is something near the top of NewCo’s agenda.
Mexico means business
There’s a good handful of leagues around the world worth keeping an eye on right now. While the WSL, NWSL, Bundesliga, Liga F and co have forged reputations as the top leagues, there are many other nations now investing in professional women’s leagues. More the merrier, of course.
One of them is Mexico, which has caught quite a lot of my attention in the past 18 months. Huge crowds, rules which dictate Liga MX clubs have to invest in a women’s team, and a gradual influx of players crossing the border to and from the USA both ways, and now from Europe too.
Jenni Hermoso was their biggest fish, and the Spanish World Cup winner has stepped up to Tigres UANL in the past week, and has been joined by a big money acquisition in Thembi Kgatlana, who showed what she’s about at the World Cup for South Africa. The fact the fee was as big as it was shows exactly what the Liga MX is about and where it’s going.
Relevant Read: Why Mexico could be Women’s Football’s next big market
Pachuca, Hermoso’s previous club, replaced her swiftly with Colombia striker Catalia Usme, while veteran Dutch defender Merel van Dongen has joined Monterrey Rayadas, and Kgatlana’s South African compatriot in attack has left behind South Korea for Mazatlán, all in just the last week.
It’s not just players either. Former Atletico Madrid coaches Ángel Villacampa and Óscar Fernández are both there, while another Spaniard in Mila Martínez is in charge of Tigres. Rayadas has just hired Amelia Valverde, former head coach of Costa Rica.
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Answering your Questions
ML - With Arsenal interest in Mary Earps supposedly off, what do you expect to happen? Will she move in January? Move in June? If so, to where? Or do you think she might actually sign an extension at United?
Never rule anything out, but for a while its felt very much like Déjà vu from 12 months ago and Alessia Russo. With a contract running down and the noise around it, there’s never smoke without fire. The Arsenal interest cooling would be interesting given how adamant they were she was their only target, making a big money move, so it could be posturing from her new agency to put some pressure on, using interest from elsewhere. I don’t think she will go in January, but United have a good option in Phallon Tullis-Joyce, and they didn’t have a direct replacement for Russo last January, which was a big reason as to why they didn’t fold.
ML - With Newcastle looking likely to be in the Championship next season, do you expect them to make big money offers to WSL stars to drop down a level for a season and then play for Newcastle in the WSL the following season? If yes, which WSL players do you see being interested in that?
Probably, but WSL players dropping down a level is nothing new now given the strength of the league. I’m sure they’d try to, but I wouldn’t also guarantee they are definitely coming up as I think Burnley in particular still have a great chance. Although ask me again after the January window and it might be a different answer!
Paul B - Despite his relative success, Marc Skinner remains unpopular with many United fans. Do you think he can keep his job for next season without winning a cup this year (assuming United have already dropped too many points to win the WSL)?
I think it will say a lot of United’s ambitions either way. If he doesn’t make the UWCL or win a trophy, it won’t be easy to justify a new contract to supporters, even if I think overall Skinner has done a relatively good job, particularly last season. At the very least, you want to see some progression in play after the break. The first half of the season was always going to be about piecing together a very new-look attack, so now we need to see the fruits of that labour.
Michael Scoates - Happy New Year Rich! Re: Social Distortion, recent article by Paul Wheeler, are the sentiments expressed by the 5 players pretty much representative of the current women's' football game in your opinion? Are there takeaways that other developing sports like Rugby/Cricket can benefit from? Re: Olympics, I think Spain will win it (still gotta qualify alongside Netherlands and Germany but still). Got a name for NewCo yet? Any idea when it'll be announced? Hoping all is well with you, I start a new job this year so I'm looking forward to supporting the game more financially than last year :) Who needs it most though?
Happy New Year! I initially read that as Social Distancing, which says a lot about the last few years!"
It was a really interesting article, but also sadly nothing I didn’t expect. I don’t think we need to take lessons, we just need to find our own way and find a balance because I know for sure players don’t want to complete cut out the fans. It needs to be a healthy and respectful two-way relationship. My own experience in the Championship is slightly different, it’s still very friendly and hasn’t gone OTT yet because the names aren’t as big as the top WSL sides.
On NewCo, I’m unaware of any naming plans. Good luck with the job, I’d recommend whoever your local club or grassroots club is!
John Spooner - Interesting new year ahead. What's your take on the 2025 Euros qualifying schedule? The group phase is (provisionally) scheduled to start in April & finish in July a matter of days before the Olympics. If Olympic qualification was an issue for team GB it would surely have been an organisational nightmare from selection point of view.
Yes, it’s an interesting quirk, although I think it’s eight days between qualifiers and the Olympics starting? Every chance those involved may just use qualifiers as glorified warm-up games to build into the tournament, or perhaps the three UEFA nations don’t play that round of qualifiers on those dates, but sure we’ll find out when the draw is made!
Any other business
I’ve got big plans for the website in 2024 and I’m looking forward as ever to creating some really unique content for the women’s game. Keep an eye out soon for my big feature from the day I spent behind the scenes at Brighton before Christmas, which offers a fascinating insight into one of the WSL sides with in my opinion one of the most exciting long-term projects.
Regular followers of mine will know I help to run The Guardian’s Top 100 Female Footballers of the Year project, and I’m pleased to say the 2023 list will be out next week between Tuesday and Friday!
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Looking forward to reading the Top 100!
Thank you Rich. Lewes it is :) I've got Liga BBVA MX Femenil more centralised on my radar now, thank you for whetting my appetite.