Column: Is this the most open World Cup ever?
Many top nations enter next week's global tournament with questions marks against their names. Anyone could stand out from the crowd and spring a surprise...
"Who is going to win the World Cup?" is possibly the most common question being thrown out right now, just 10 days out from the start of the 2023 tournament down under in Australia and New Zealand.
The answer though is far less simple than it used to be. "Well, the USA, obviously" or before that maybe "Germany, definitely", given they have won five of the last six World Cups between them.
It would be no shock to anybody should one of them win the trophy again next month, but for a variety of reasons it feels like this is the most widespread field when it comes to potential champions.
Just look at the draw pots for example. 2019 finalists Netherlands weren't even top seeds, nor were 2015 finalists and 2011 champions Japan, or Copa America champions Brazil. That in itself has created some mouth-watering groups, including a repeat of the final from four years ago inside the first week of the tournament. Tasty indeed.
Some of the top nations haven't been setting the world alight in warm-up friendlies, but that's nothing to be overly alarmed about and there's been a history of the best teams suddenly finding form once the main event starts.
But this does feel a little different. Many of the top nations are re-finding themselves due to injuries to key players, forcing reshuffles of positions, formations and tactics, while some are still finding their feet under new head coaches.
France is an example of a nation fighting both. Les Bleus are mere months into the Hervé Renard era and are also heading into the tournament without three key players. Marie-Antoinette Katoto hasn't recovered from the ACL injury she suffered during Euro 2022, Delphine Cascarino is also missing due to an ACL and Amandine Henry has had to pull out late on due to a calf injury sustained recently.
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But they are far from on their own. World champions USA are missing influential captain Becky Sauerbrunn, as well as dynamic attacking duo Catarina Macario and Mal Swanson. European champions England are also missing their centre-back/captain in Leah Williamson, plus also their own attacking duo of Beth Mead and Fran Kirby.
The parallels are almost spooky.
Spain are missing key players, but for other reasons, with Mapi León and Patri Guijarro standing firm in sitting the tournament out due to the on-going dispute between players and the RFEF. León is one of the best defenders in the world, and Guijarro was arguably the best midfielder in the world over the past 12 months.
Netherlands are missing talismanic forward Vivianne Miedema, and even Germany couldn't avoid a key loss just last week after Carolin Simon tore her ACL against Zambia. Martina Voss-Tecklenburg's side probably hold the most consistency in selection carrying over from last year's run to the Euro 2022 final, but they've also been far from convincing in warm-up games against lower-ranked nations.
Canada too are missing a couple of key names, so does it leave a chance for co-hosts Australia? Tony Gustavsson's side seem to be peaking at the right time, have players both fit and in form and have the home crowd behind them. Who knows?! But that's the beauty of the situation.
Sweden, always the quiet underdogs despite their world ranking, also come in understated with few injuries and both an experienced squad and head coach, could this finally be their time to go back to the top?
And what of the pretenders? Brazil, under Pia Sundhage, are in fine form and have an exciting young team. It's a similar story for Japan, with stars such as Yui Hasegawa, Hina Sugita, Jun Endo, Maika Hamano, Riko Ueki and co ready to burst onto the world stage, while Norway arguably houses the best front four in the world on its day and a head coach who won the World Cup with her nation as a player.
Is it realistic there are perhaps a dozen teams who could win this World Cup? It does genuinely feel realistic, and makes the proposition of the next five weeks even more exciting than it already was.
Could someone even spring a surprise outside that established bunch? Who could do a Morocco of Qatar 2022? Zambia shone against Germany last week and have a superb front duo of Barbra Banda and Racheal Kundananji, but they're in a tough group alongside Spain and Japan. That is one trio of games not to be missed!
Who is going to win this World Cup? Who the hell knows?! And what a fantastic situation that is to be in for the neutrals looking forward to this extended 32-team edition of the world's biggest tournament.
Bring it on.
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