Analysis: Where the quarter-finals will be won and lost
Eight teams, including European champions England and co-hosts Australia, are set to fight it out over the next 48 hours for four prized semi-final World Cup spots...
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Spain vs Netherlands
Two very contrasting styles and systems will square off in the first of the four quarter-finals. It will an early start (or late night!) for those in the two participating nations, but it should be wait staying up for.
Jorge Vilda’s Spain answered some questions carried over from their 4-0 defeat to Japan with a 5-1 win over Switzerland in the second round where their attack once again clicked into gear after a few key tactical tweaks and returning a few other players to the positions they’d thrived in during the opening two games.
Vilda has the depth to rotate again if needed but the further you go in the tournament, the likelier it is to settle on a starting line-up. The big questions come at the back. Captain Ivana Andrés is training and therefore could return, but what does Vilda do with his full-backs? Ona Batlle and Olga Carmona played the opening games, before Oihane Hernández came in and Battle switched to the left.
Carmona’s natural forward thinking mindset made her an excellent outlet in the opening games but she struggling against Japan’s system. With Esmee Brugts down the left side for the Netherlands, it wouldn’t be a shock if Vilda switched Batlle back to the right side to combat her threat, and is perhaps less worried about Carmona’s defensive deficiencies against a 3-5-2 system with only one wide player to worry about.
With Jenni Hermoso back in her midfield role, the Pachuca forward is almost playing as a third forward, assuming Esther González and Alba Redondo remain in the starting eleven, and Salma Paralluelo brings a more unpredictable element against a Netherlands backline which has shown cracks against attacks with good movement.
The Dutch too have a few decisions to make. Daniëlle van de Donk is suspended, so it appears former Spain international herself Damaris Egurrola will come in for the Lyon midfielder. Andries Jonker will have to utilise the defensive qualities of both Damaris and Jackie Groenen to likely split and help their wing-backs out with Spain’s full-backs and wingers, or else they risk becoming over-powered on the flanks.
Up front though they have a great outlet on the break in Lineth Beerensteyn. It was evident against South Africa Beerensteyn’s runs into the channels were causing issues and with Spain’s likelihood to push both full-backs high, Beerensteyn in particular could have some joy and will be important to their chances of progression.
How Teresa Abelleira and Jill Roord marshal each other will be interesting too. Abelleira has been excellent sitting behind Aitana Bonmatí and Hermoso so far this tournament, while Roord has been adept at popping up in the box behind the attack to score four goals in four games.
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Japan vs Sweden
There will be plenty of eyes on this one to see if the best team in the tournament so far can jump another hurdle and progress to the semi-finals, or can a resilient Sweden stop Futoshi Ikeda’s side firmly in their stride.
Weirdly, despite Sweden being the highest-ranked nation left in the tournament, this feels something of a mis-match given Japan have been excellent and across four games Peter Gerhardsson’s side have never really clicked into gear. Yet here we are.
Similarly to Spain and Netherlands, two very contrasting styles will be on show here, but in very different ways. Japan’s brand of football has been fascinating to watch and it’s evident just how many core players in this group played under Ikeda and enjoyed success at youth level.
Their 3-4-3 has been truly unique. Striker Mina Tanaka has often dropped off and has three assists, while midfielder Hinata Miyazawa has regularly profited from late runs in behind the defence to get five goals for herself and leads the Golden Boot race. Aoba Fujino, the final element of this front three, very often drifts wide to send crosses into the box or facilitate space for wing-back Risa Shimizu, who scored the crucial second against Norway last time out.
Down the other side, Jun Endo’s crisp passing and deliveries into the box have caused havoc, while Yui Hasegawa in the midfield in particular has been nothing short of brilliant, both offensively and defensively.
This game could easily be a battle of the left foots, such is the threat Sweden’s own Jonna Andersson poses, particularly with her corner deliveries which has led to three goals for centre-back Amanda Ilestedt. With Sweden still not quite clicking in attack this tournament, set-pieces could easily be their way past a Japan side not short on quality, but certainly lacking in aerial presence.
Nobody has yet found a way to deal with this Japan side. They’ve scored 17 goals in four games including the likes of Spain and Norway and conceded just once, but Norway did show creaks when it comes to their ability to defend balls into the box, and it will be no shock if that’s where Sweden go about targeting a spot in the semi-finals.
But Japan have been smart and off the ball get in position very well, and no doubt Hasegawa and Fuka Nagano will be quick to drop in front of their back three when Sweden get the ball in attacking areas. Stina Blackstenius has often looked isolated as it is and against a solid outfit they will have to be quick in their attacking play to pull a very organised side out of position.
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Australia vs France
In what is a mouth-watering quarter-final line-up across all four games, this one still stands out to me as potentially tie of the riound, especially from a tactical point of view.
There’s several reasons for that, aside from the atmosphere in front of a partisan home crowd for Tony Gustavsson’s Matildas.
Firstly, both these teams are peaking. Neither had a good start, with Australia squeezing past Republic of Ireland via a penalty before being defeated by Nigeria. France drew 0-0 with Jamaica, but both have not hit form, with Hervé Renard’s side finding the net 10 times in just their last two games, while Australia demolished Olympic champions Canada 4-0 and comfortably dealt with Denmark in the second round.
Part of that slow start was down to the fact neither side could quite play the teams they wanted to. Gustavsson, at a day’s notice, had to flip his team on its head due to the absence of Sam Kerr, and it took two games to realise Caitlin Foord could be as effective as she has been on the left wing, while Mary Fowler has thrived in the number 10 role.
Kerr made a late cameo against Denmark but it would be a big ask to throw her in from the start here, but the combination of Fowler playing off Emily van Egmond with Foord and Hayley Raso pushing forward from the wings has clicked nicely, even without the Chelsea striker.
Australia are also safe in the knowledge Foord and Raso are backed up by top class full-backs and a solid base, with Katrina Gorry and Kyra Cooney-Cross doing an excellent job in the midfield.
France have been similar. No Selma Bacha in the first game affected France’s use of width, but since she returned they have flown, with the youngster and Sakina Karchaoui forming a formidable partnership down the left. Worryingly for Australia, France also has the most clinical strike partnership with Kadidiatou Diani and Eugénie Le Sommer now scoring seven goals between them in the last three games.
Like Australia, there’s also a solid base in the middle in Grace Geyoro and Sandie Toletti, allowing the front four to do their thing, and that four-way midfield battle will be crucial to this one.
The second element is by and large this is two systems which should cancel each other out. Both generally play a 4-4-2 with one striker dropping slightly deeper to link up, meaning there will be man to man battles all across the pitch. How Kenza Dali and Ève Périsset face up Catley and Foord and vice versa will be as fascinating as Karchaoui and Bacha against Raso and Ellie Carpenter on the other side, as will be the battle of both centre-back pairings against the forward lines.
France certainly looks like a team which has more goals in them than Australia right now, and I genuinely think this will be the most fascinating battle of all four games.
Relevant Read: Rachel Daly’s Journey to the Top
England vs Colombia
This one certainly has a bit more of the unknown about it. On paper, the fourth in the world ranked European champions against the lowest ranked side left in the tournament should be a no-brainer, but this tournament has shown us not to take anything for granted.
But for want of a better word, Sarina Wiegman’s Lionesses haven’t been good this tournament, not in an attacking sense anyway. Their 6-1 win over China is somewhat of an outlier in that their opponents did little to stifle the tactical shift Wiegman put out, leaving just one goal from open play in their other three games and a penalty shootout win over a Nigeria side who deserved to win to show for their efforts so far.
What makes this interesting is the head coach who was the most predictable to read 12 months ago is now the only one where you’re wondering quite what we’ll see on Saturday. Wiegman stuck with the tried and tested 4-2-3-1 in the opening two games, but a combination of Keira Walsh’s injury and a lacklustre attack forced her to change to a 3-5-2 for China and Nigeria.
After looking like it had the desired effect, it faltered again against Nigeria, with neither Alessia Russo or Lauren Hemp getting a foothold in the game.
But the biggest worry of all will be the absence of Lauren James. Of England’s seven open play goals, James has contributed to six of them and her unpredictable style and quick feet have been tough to stop, whereas England’s remaining attackers are more one-dimensional and have been easier to defend against.
With Colombia showing a real solid shape and tenacity across the back line and the midfield two, the Lionesses will have to show a lot more than they have, particularly without James, to break down Colombia’s system. Nelson Abadia’s side also look well placed to cause concern at the other end, and their wingers might just be what forces Wiegman back to a 4-2-3-1 with James absent.
It felt like much of the 3-5-2 was built around James as the number 10, but with that option gone, Wiegman will be looking at how to handle Colombia’s wide players, Linda Caicedo in particular who will look to exploit the space left by Lucy Bronze.
In a 3-5-2, similar to the Netherlands, England’s midfield two will have to split, and both Bronze and Georgia Stanway on bookings against the tricky Caicedo is another concern for Wiegman.
On the other flank, Mayra Ramírez and Catalina Usme have been less predictable in switching positions, while Leicy Santos will look to use the space if England’s midfield does split to deal with Colombia’s wing-backs. It does feel like a conventional 4-2-3-1 will be better at dealing with Colombia’s threats, but England have also struggled to create in that system.
But, this may be a game for the Lionesses to be pragmatic and play in transition, something they should be very good with the pace and energy of Russo and Hemp up front.
What England do have going for them is their back three has looked solid as a rock. If Bronze and Daly are high up the pitch, Jess Carter and Alex Greenwood can fill out to the wings to help protect against Ramírez and Caicedo, and you’d trust them to do so given in my opinion they have been England’s best two players by some distance across the four games so far.
That may be one reason Wiegman decides to stick with this system against a strong attack, because in a back four England looked less than assured against Haiti and Denmark.
While on rankings this looks one-sided, it could prove to be the closest match-up of the quarter-finals.