Analysis: The world champions exit in the finest of margins while spirited South Africa bow out
It was another day of high drama as USA's reign as world champions came to an end in a pulsating penalty shootout, while the runners-up from 2019 Netherlands progressed...
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Netherlands continue to tick over as South Africa depart
It’s hard to have too many coherent thoughts when getting up for a game which kicks off at 3am and ends at 5am, but Netherlands were just about worthy winners against a South Africa side which has lit up this World Cup.
And who knows, on another day it could have been different, had it not been for a trio of very good saves by Daphne van Domselaar as Banyana Banyana showed the kind of attacking qualities which have shone through since their opening game against Sweden - who I’ll come onto!
To start with, there was nothing particularly radical about either line-up. Netherlands brought back the returning Lineth Beerensteyn, while South Africa remained in their usual shape with Bongeke Gamede again in midfield with Refiloe Jane still injured.
I was interested to see if a team who attacks as quickly and directly as South Africa could expose Netherlands down the flanks in their wing-back system, but in truth Andries Jonker and his side did a good job of limiting the danger, even if they did have to call on Van Domselaar more times than they’d have hoped.
When Victoria Pelova and Esmee Brugts were up-field and out of position, wide centre-backs Sherida Spitse and Dominique Janssen would shuffle out to cover, while Jackie Groenen would drop back to offer another body alongside Stefanie van der Gragt.
Groenen’s defensive work has been important this tournament and she has 42 ball recoveries to her name across her four games, behind only Japan’s Yui Hasegawa.
In attack, Beerensteyn offered the kind of movement and pace in attack which they’d missed in the two games she’d been absent. Particularly in the second half when they tweaked things a little to get back on top of the game and to try and stretch the back four a little more, she was good at making runs out wide which allowed Pelova in particular to drift inside and cause issues for South Africa.
Losing Daniëlle van de Donk is a blow though because she has been quietly pivotal to their way of playing so far, in both an attacking and defensive role. It was a needless challenge to make inside South Africa’s half and means she will be missing from a game which already looks tough on paper against Spain on Friday.
South Africa go home but with heads held high. They seem to have become many people’s second team, but their performances haven’t been a fluke, nor was their qualification for the second round.
Desiree Ellis will rue two unfortunate injuries to key players in the first half of the game, just at a point where her side was actually just starting to get on top. First, Jermaine Seoposenwe had to hobble off, which given her creative influence was a huge blow.
The Liga MX star has created eight chances in this tournament, the most alongside an impressive list of Aitana Bonmatí, Jenni Hermoso and Aoba Fujino. To then lose Bambanani Mbane too at the back saw them struggle to keep their solid shape as regularly after the break.
I was a little surprised Ellis didn’t utlise more substitutions after the break as her team started to tire, but they’ve done themselves a huge amount of credit this tournament, and it won’t do any damage to their hopes of hosting next time around in 2027.
Several of their players rank highly in stats. The ever dangerous Thembi Kgatlana has had more shots and shots on target than anyone, but she’ll be disappointed she wasn’t more clinical in this one. She was smart enough to make her runs on Spitse’s side of the Dutch back three, but she couldn’t beat Van Domselaar.
Seoposenwe - as mentioned - is joint for chances created, with Gamede has won more tackles than anyone else (12) and Lebohang Ramalepe has the most interceptions (11).
South Africa and Ellis had a well-drilled plan for every game, every eventually, which is more than can be said for a few nations we’ve seen at this tournament.
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USA are heading home
Where on earth do you start with that one?! That’s the beauty of analysis. You can sit and watch a game over 120 minutes, what went right and what went wrong, and then it comes down to the finest of margins, and this was about the finest of margins I’ve ever seen.
But, this is an analysis, and as dramatic as a penalty shootout is, there’s not much to analyse apart from it somewhat summed the match up for the USA, who will not be winning a third straight World Cup. Megan Rapinoe’s potentially final touch of a ball at a World Cup flew over, Sophia Smith blew the chance to win it, Kelley O’Hara struck the post before Lina Hurtig’s penalty somehow squirmed over the line by a margin not even known to man!
In the game itself though, USA needed a reaction to what we’d seen in the group stage and to be fair, they gave one. Sweden go through, but they were again poor and offensively at least had little answer for what the game plan set out by Vlatko Andonovski was.
Emily Sonnett came into the team to form a midfield pivot with Andi Sullivan and it worked a treat. Sonnett was smart on the ball, tenacious at reading things defensively, but it also allowed Sullivan to worry more about dictating play than screening the defence as she’s had to the last few games.
The back four and Alyssa Naeher was again rock solid. It can’t be said their defence was the reason they went out after conceding just two shots on target across four games, so it’s scarcely believable they’ve ended up going home before even the quarter-finals.
But it was a lack of goal threat, amazingly, which sees them eliminated. Now around 250 minutes without a goal since Lindsey Horan’s header against Netherlands, it just never, ever clicked for them going forward in this tournament.
Trinity Rodman came back in and worked her socks off with little attacking impact, but was on limited minutes due to an illness in the build-up, while Smith on the other side just couldn’t replicate her recent NWSL form. In weeks and months to come, Andonovski may look back and wished he’d used Smith as his main forward, because Alex Morgan too had a really difficult tournament.
Before today’s game, Morgan had 15 shots on goal with only two on target from open play, and it’s unlikely that stat will read much better once those statistics are updated. Lynn Williams made an impact when she came on down the right and gave Jonna Andersson a tough time, but her crosses never found a player in the box, and all too often that was the story for the US.
Andonovski may also wish perhaps he’d gone with this system from the off. It got the best out of a number of players, shifting into a flat 4-4-2 off the ball with Horan playing off Morgan, but the ability of Smith and Rodman to cut in more also meant both Emily Fox and Crystal Dunn were more of an attacking threat than we’ve seen in this tournament.
At the end of the day, they’ll lament a recurrence of poor finishing across the tournament, but also on the day the exploits of Sweden goalkeeper Zećira Mušović, who thwarted them time and time and time again.
It’s a good job, because Sweden managed just one shot on target themselves and never looked likely to score from open play. Even their now infamous corners were well managed by Naeher and the USA defence. Stina Blackstenius cut an isolated figure up front while neither Johanna Rytting Kaneryd or Fridolina Rolfo had much joy out wide.
Sweden will be delighted to be through and lay to rest a few penalty shootout demons, but as much as it hasn’t clicked for the USA, it hasn’t clicked for Sweden either. It’s a surprise, especially given this team has been together for so long, but something’s not quite working, and they will have to shape up to stand a chance against the continually impressive Japan on Friday.
The Swedes don’t rank highly this tournament for high presses or turnovers, allowing the other team to pass and it was similar against the USA. But, they’re into the quarter-finals and if there’s one area they can bother Japan it’s in the air, but right now Japan has their game plan on lockdown, so it will be a tough ask, especially after a physically and mentally draining 120 minutes 24 hours after Japan played their own second round match.