Analysing the remaining 16 World Cup contenders
It has been a tournament of shocks so far, with one of the favourites Germany the latest to bow out. But 16 have made it past the first step, and I take a look at their varying chances of success...
What a World Cup it’s been so far. We’ve lost six top 20 ranked sides, including European finalists Germany and Copa America winners Brazil, while the likes of Morocco, Jamaica and South Africa have caused upsets to reach the second round.
Most people’s pre-tournament brackets are in the bin, but we’ve learned some key lessons from this World Cup so far. While we’ve seen some excellent attacking play and some great goals, defending has been key. Defences win tournaments, after all.
Three nations have gone through without a goal conceded and many of the so-called surprises have turned up well drilled, with solid defences, set ideas and plans well executed by their coaches, while some of the perceived bigger nations have turned up looking like they expected the new expanded 32-format to be a doddle for them.
To say the defending of some of those bigger nations has been good has been an overstatement. Many have tried square pegs in round holes to force certain players on the pitch, but perhaps have been taken by surprise when it comes to the qualities of others. We haven’t seen the double figure scorelines many predicted, instead have seen set tactical plans, even by the smallest nations involved who have out-smarted some of the best there is.
With 16 going home and 16 staying down under, I run the rule over who has impressed, why they’ve impressed and what they might still have to work on to walk away with a trophy which does seem anybody’s to win or lose.
Check out over 100 more unique stories in WFC’s Premium section, available for just £45 for 12 months, paid in one go, or a £6 a month rolling subscription.
All subscriptions come with a 7-day free trial to allow you to explore our full archive.
Plus, guarantee you everything that is to come over the next 12 months…
Switzerland
Inka Grings and her Swiss side have just gone about their business quietly so far, and you can’t knock them for that. They won Group A and relatively stayed out of the drama Norway, New Zealand and Philippines got drawn into.
Grings has settled on a pretty standard system, with only really Seraina Piubel’s role changing between the three games. Eseosa Aigbogun, Nadine Riesen, Julia Stierli and Noelle Maritz have held down the fort at the back, while Lia Wälti, Coumba Sow and Geraldine Reuteler have been a solid base in front, leading Switzerland to be one of just three teams to reach the second round without conceding.
They did draw a blank in two of their games though, despite having quality such as Ana-Maria Crnogorčević and Ramona Bachmann up front, but they look well placed to be the kind of side who could frustrate opponents Spain when they meet on Saturday.
Switzerland are clearly a well drilled side. They rank 5th for build-up attacks of 10 or more passes, with nine, although none of them have led to a goal, and they’re 4th for general sequences of 10 plus passes completed with 38 across their three games and have shown they are comfortable in possession and the players are all aware of each other’s roles.
Players on a booking: Noelle Maritz, Ramona Bachmann
Spain
For two games, everything looked rosy for Spain and Jorge Vilda, back-to-back 3-0 and 5-0 wins firmly putting the focus on what La Roja can do on the field as opposed to what has been going on off it for the past 12 months.
Losing 4-0 to Japan undid a lot of that as Spain fell into many of the same traps they have always done, pushing their midfielders and full-backs too high up the pitch, not adapting their game to a stronger opponent who were well set up to exploit their weaknesses.
Spain though have enjoyed plenty of positives. With 97 high press sequences, they rank 1st in the tournament so far and have completed 60 high turnovers in the final third to take the ball back off opponents in the final third.
Teresa Abelleira has completed 304 passes, one of the highest in the tournament and has generally done a good job at dictating play in the absence of Patri Guijarro. Spain will hope against Switzerland to be more clinical in front of goal though, with Esther González managing 10 shots in just 71 minutes of action, but only putting three on target. Jenni Hermoso, who moved into a forward role in their last two games, has had 15 shots, the joint highest in the tournament.
Vilda has generally kept the same back four and midfield across the past few games bar captain Ivana Andrés missing the Japan game through injury, but the attack hasn’t truly clicked since the first game. Injury to Athenea del Castillo has seen Salma Paralluelo swap sides where she’s been less effective, and the return of those key players could be vital to their chances moving forward.
Eva Navarro could provide another option having got two assists in cameo appearances off the bench.
Players on a booking: Oihane Hernández, Olga Carmona
Japan
If I was writing a power rankings for the group stage, Japan would be top. There’s been so much to like about Futoshi Ikeda’s side, but it goes way beyond just looking at their three impressive victories.
Ikeda has used both the quality and depth of his squad across all three games to punish their opponents. While Saki Kumagai and Moeka Minami have remained a constant in their back three, Ikeda has used a different right-sided centre-back in all three games.
Risa Shimizu has nailed down the right wing-back spot, but the midfield is where Japan enjoys the most depth. Yui Hasegawa has played the holding role brilliantly and has made 38 recoveries, the second most in the tournament so far.
Fuka Nagano, Hinata Miyazawa, Hikaru Naomoto and Honoka Hayashi have all been used alongside her in various roles, while Jun Endo and Hina Sugita have both excelled rotating games down the left-hand side, Endo in particular with her wicked left-footed crosses.
Up front, Aoba Fujino and Mina Tanaka have played intriguing roles, neither really playing as conventional strikers, dropping deep to get on the ball and allowing the midfield to run off them, which has led to Miyazawa leading the Golden Boot race with four goals. Tanaka, generally the main striker, has been the creative influence. She’s created seven big chances, the joint most in the tournament, and her three assists see her top of that list too, while Endo has two.
Against Spain, Ikeda played a 3-4-3 rather than 3-5-2, pushing Miyazawa and Naomoto just behind Riko Ueki, safe in the knowledge both would drop back into the midfield to stop Spain playing through them, and it worked to devastating effect.
Japan haven’t messed about in attack, their two goals from five direct attacks (10 passes or less) the most in the tournament, and that effectiveness was most on show against Spain. They’ve remained solid though, not conceding a single goal and only three shots on target against them.
They are, right now, the favourites based on what we’ve seen so far.
Players on a booking:
Norway
It really looked like there was a chance Norway wasn’t going to be here. Facing Japan will be a tough ask, buti it’s at least a step further than they managed 12 months ago.
It’s been the usual tournament for Norway. Off-field tensions, key players speaking out, plenty of shuffling the pack and some square pegs in round holes from Hege Riise.
While the main concerns about Norway coming into the tournament was at the back, it’s actually the final third they’ve struggled, until the Philippines game that was. Riise has settled on a back four consistently across the three games, while Vilde Bøe Risa has been preferred as the defensive midfielder after a disappointing opening game for Ingrid Engen.
Guro Reiten, despite starring on the left for Chelsea, has remained central as she has for most of Riise’s brief tenure, but there’s been little consistency in attack. Julie Blakstad started the first game, as did Caroline Graham Hansen and Ada Hegerberg, but a game later it was Amalie Eikeland, Sophie Haug and Emilie Haavi.
Hegerberg’s injury facilitated Haug’s entrance, and her hat-trick in the final game will give Riise a tough decision to make if Hegerberg is passed fit. Haug’s had 12 shots, with seven on target in just 163 minutes, the second most after Alex Popp.
With Norway still looking unsure when it comes to balance, there’s been calls to play Engen and Bøe Risa together, but Aurora Mikalsen in goal has only had to face four shots on target in three games and they’ve conceded just once. Frida Maanum has continued her good form, creating seven chances for her teammates, the joint most in the tournament so far.
It hasn’t really clicked yet for Norway, but they’ve ticked one box and on their day we all know their attackers will be capable of causing any team problems, and the game against Japan should be an intriguing watch.
Players on a booking: Vilde Bøe Risa, Emilie Haavi
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Women's Football Chronicles to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.